Gold has bounced back to around $5,200 per ounce, yet this price level remains below the recent peak seen in January. Despite some short-term consolidation, many market watchers say the broader uptrend in precious metals is far from over.
According to MKS PAMP’s Head of Research and Metals Strategy, Nicky Shiels, the current gold rally looks similar to previous major bull markets when viewed through a historical lens. She points out that the rally has unfolded over roughly 39 months, with gold climbing more than 200%, silver almost 350%, and the U.S. dollar weakening by about 13% — characteristics that suggest this cycle is still in its middle phase rather than nearing an end.
Based on historical averages from past gold bull markets, Shiels suggests that if this one follows a similar pattern, prices could push as high as $6,750 per ounce by the time of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
Why Many Analysts Are Still Bullish
Shiels and other analysts point to several forces supporting gold’s strength:
- Structural fiscal pressures — government debt and ongoing deficits in major economies may keep investors interested in precious metals.
- Central bank buying — many central banks continue to add gold to their reserves, which supports a strong price floor.
- Broader demand base — retail interest, including sales through large outlets and demand for digital gold products, has expanded the pool of gold buyers.
- Dollar weakness — if the U.S. dollar weakens further, gold could benefit as it becomes more attractive to holders of other currencies.
That said, Shiels also notes that certain developments could slow gold’s advance. Stronger global geopolitical conditions, renewed confidence in the U.S. dollar, or shifts in fiscal policy could reduce the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold.